新增 17 個 Skills 並完成全員技能配置
- 新增 17 個 SKILL.md(tradermonty + langalpha 來源): breadth-chart-analyst, catalyst-calendar, competitive-analysis, comps-analysis, dcf-model, earnings-analysis, earnings-preview, earnings-trade-analyzer, edge-concept-synthesizer, edge-hint-extractor, options-strategy-advisor, pair-trade-screener, pead-screener, portfolio-manager, sector-overview, stanley-druckenmiller-investment, theme-detector - 更新全部 11 個 Agent 的 AGENTS.md(含原本空白的 ceo 與 xiao-an) - 更新 docs/agent-skill-mapping.md 至 v3.0(71 個配置,62 個技能) - 台股 + 美股雙市場覆蓋,Skills 均基於真實開源 repo Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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---
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name: DCF 估值模型
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description: 折現現金流(DCF)估值分析,建立完整的三期成長模型,計算內在價值與安全邊際,判斷個股是否低估/高估
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metadata:
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sources:
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- kind: github-file
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repo: ginlix-ai/langalpha
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path: skills/dcf-model/SKILL.md
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usage: referenced
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---
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# DCF 估值模型
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基於基本面的個股內在價值估算,為多方研究員提供估值錨點。
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## 模型架構
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### 三期成長模型
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- **高速成長期**(1-5年):基於歷史成長率和分析師預估
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- **過渡期**(6-10年):成長率逐漸向長期均值靠近
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- **永久成長期**:穩定成長率(通常2-3%)
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### 關鍵假設
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- 折現率(WACC)計算
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- 股權成本(CAPM:Rf + β × ERP)
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- 債務成本
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- 資本結構
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- 自由現金流預估(FCF)
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- 終值計算方法(Gordon Model 或 EV/EBITDA 倍數)
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## 敏感度分析
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- 成長率 ±2% 對估值的影響
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- WACC ±1% 對估值的影響
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- 牛/熊/基準情境下的估值範圍
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## 輸出格式
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```
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公司:TSMC (2330.TW)
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內在價值:NT$1,250(基準情境)
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當前股價:NT$980
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安全邊際:21.6%
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結論:低估,做多合理
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```
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## 需要的 MCP 工具
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- `yfinance` / `casual-market`:歷史財務數據
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- `fred`:無風險利率(10年期公債殖利率)
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## 使用時機
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多方研究員評估個股是否具備基本面支撐,配合 `comps-analysis` 交叉驗證
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